food for thought (maybe beating a dead horse?)

[Slowerthensnot]

http://www.popularmechanics.com/outdoors/survival/gear/personal-locator-beacons?src=rss

spot beacons are sure fun gadgets.... love looking after a ride and not have a distraction of a gps and such during an adventure

the link has a few errors..

However Dave Harris and I have had some discussions on do you do things differently when you have a spot, even maybe without being aware?

Put your self at maybe a bit more risk if you didn't have the spot or plb?

[ActionJackson]

Article reminds me of the Yuppie 911 thread earlier this year.

Using the Spot, I feel I even pay more attention to what I am doing and more responsible for my actions, my family and friends are the eye in the sky.

I am taking the exact same risk down the path wether I have one or not in any adventure. That only changes when it comes to the point in time of needed rescue.

I know one fella who finished the AZT 750 and the CTR this year without one.

Other than that, I don't do much different at all, given what little experience I have in Ultra events.

Seems to me one of the most useful benefits we have from them is being able to "Blue Dot Junky" an event and review tracks we've taken.

[wookieone]

I would say I got the spot more so the folks back home don't have to worry about me, I weigh risks very thoroughly, and I don't take more risks with the spot on. It is a good point as more and more races, timetrails, etc are using them, so does this give folks the feeling that there is back up waiting to bail them out? Good question. I believe that we all need to be responsible for ourselves and each other in the backcountry, forget that there is even a rescue possible, that is how I think about it. Good to wonder these things....Jefe

[bmike-vt]

Have the SPOT for the folks at home. It's come in handy for my wife's marathoning - I can watch the tracker on my phone and guesstimate arrival times. She likes me being able to send heck in messages.  Fairly unobtrusive - not like worrying about cell signal and sending a text or main a call. Have not used it on a multiday trip yet (this weekend will ne te first)  - and while I know I can hit the e button on it - I don't think it changes my pretty conservative approach to riding / hiking.

[Roland Sturm]

Not a dead horse and actually an argument that rears its head in regulatory policy over and over again. There is even a name for it, the "Peltzman effect", which goes back to a 1975 paper by then University of Chicago economist Sam Peltzman in the Journal of Political Economy. Peltzman had a not unreasonably hypothesis, namely that regulation could induce change in behavior that goes against the intended effects of the regulation. He focused on seatbelts in his paper and argued that seatbelts are the cause of unnecessary deaths because people just go wild as soon as they wear one (something that would be particularly disconcerting for us as cyclists). His empirical evidence was more than dubious (it was required reading while I was in grad school) and he pushed a plausible idea over the brink, but it became an influential paper.

Does SPOT turn people into reckless nutcases, i.e. is there a noticeable Peltzman effect? I doubt it, although as a researcher, I would love to find a way to test for such potential effects.

My personal experience is like most others - appease family staying at home. I don't even have a cell phone myself but sometimes get talked into taking one with me (and I bet as soon as they know about SPOT, I have to buy one). No effect on my riding at all and very unlikely that it would even change outcomes (I broke a frame last year and hiked out as one should rather than calling for help).

[Done]

Planning for an outdoor adventure usually includes a risk versus reward calculation. Most of us do this without much fanfare, such as choosing to being a warmer jacket if the weather looks unsettled. Or possibly choosing to ride with a partner if the trail is long and unknown. In general, I think that most people will push harder if the margins of safety are higher, and Spots unquestionably add safety--so I expect that their adoption will encourage people to further push their limits and enhance their risk.

Of course, getting rescued can be expensive and embarrassing. I actually activated my Spot 911 feature last weekend in Canyonlands National Park, when I came across a hiker who was having a heart attack. The medivac helicopter trip probably cost him $10,000 to $15,000. Worth it for sure, since he unquestionably would have died without it (he lived). But I doubt that he would have been excited about summoning a rescue if he didn't really need it.

Even if cost isn't a factor, I think that pushing 911 would be an embarrassing admission of failure--which would certainly discourage me from using it unless necessary. But I'd think that I'd be deluding myself if I didn't acknowledge that carrying extra safety gear (whether clothing, food, or a Spot) didn't alter my risk versus reward calculations. This doesn't mean that my Spot causes me to throw caution to the wind, but rather that it's just one more factor influencing the risks that I deem acceptable.

[gbach]

my .02
Having and using a SPOT for me has been about giving peace-o-mind for other folks, namely the signifigant other.  Also, for a few friends it's been a real hoot for them to watch my errant scurryings in various locals (going in cirlces on the grand loop has elicited some marked comments and real ongoing humor).  Oh yeah the Perltzman effect, I believe its happening (just read about how autos are safer but certain kinds of accident rates are increasing).  But, does it affect my preparation and willingness to push my limits?  I spend too much time getting my sorry butt ready for events and perhaps I'm a bit old school (military training and such), so I would "like" to believe, as my SO says:  "you got into this, now get yourself out" and that I always can.

[Slowerthensnot]

Awesome thoughts yall.... Pultzmen effect is exactly what I was thinking. I carry one most of the time. For mom and grandma mainly...

[Roland Sturm]

For mom and grandma mainly...

It would be more for wife and kids here (although so far largely managed to fend off cell phone, SPOT, or other communication doodads).
 
Whether or not SPOT affects injury rates and emergencies in a meaningful way probably depends a lot on why people adopt it. I expect no noticeable Peltzman effect, but maybe I'm wrong because I assumed that the "keep folks at home happy" reason dominates, rather than "now there is an easy, if maybe expensive, way out of a tight spot if I get myself into it". What distinguishes the SPOT story from Peltzman's world is the voluntary adoption. In regulatory policy, it is about requirements, such as having to wear a seatbelt (Peltzman's bete noir).

How could we figure out a SPOT effect? Probably never, although theoretically it is straightforward: Grab a bunch of non-SPOT members on this website, randomly (that is key) give half of them a SPOT (and make sure the other ones never have one) and ask them a year later about accidents (say serious technical problems, like bent forks, collapsed wheels, and injuries requiring at least a bit of medical attention, like collar bone breaks or shoulder separation). Let's say there is a SPOT effect that pushes accident rates from 0.1 to 0.2, a quick power calculations would indicate that you'd need about 600 people (300 per group) to reliable detect such an effect size (technically: for a two-sided test at 0.05 significance with 0.9 power). I would not expect a significant finding. It would not be possible to study the incidence of events that qualify as true emergencies (such as a broken back) because they are far too rare unless one studied tens of thousands of riders.

Practically, however, there isn't much we can learn (SPOT would be unlikely to fund such a trial) as observational surveys are fairly meaningless here. People who use SPOTS are totally different from non-SPOT users and a Peltzman effect would be totally swamped by more important factors, such as differential backcountry rides and type of riding. Biases can go in either way, downhillers and dirt jumpers don't bring SPOTs and are at higher injury risk than long distance tourer. But people who push their luck on long rides might select the device and others don't. Probably the best that could be done, although not that meaningful, would be a little survey of SPOT users about their motivation for the device.  

Now back to fixing yesterday's damage  (broken spokes).

Roland Sturm

[Spoonie]

I came to the realisation mid trip the other month that for certain emergencies (like a snake bite), hitting the SOS button would probably mean someone would be coming out to collect a body unless I got lucky..

I would dare say though that in sports like ours, the true enthusiasts tend to breed a culture of risk mitigation, not unlike the boating world where flares, life jackets, hanress and EPIRBS just seem as necessary equipment as gloves and clothes.   IMHO Spots and EPIRBS for outdoor use are just a part of that?  It's the punter who decides to head out into the bush for a long day ride for the first time that Pultzmen Effect might be more of an issue?

I maybe went overboard but my last trip, but for my first serious solo back country ride, apart from the spot, I had also worked out how and where I'd likely get extraction should I need to and other things like alternative water supplies off route.  Had I not had the spot or didn't know they exist, I'd probably have done daily scheds via phone or similar (or taken an EPIRB) but still done all the other stuff...  so not sure taking a spot made a difference to how I rode it   Especially given the realisation above! I did have to remind myself a couple of times as I was getting air off a descent (rack and gear attached that I was actually reasonably remote and maybe should tone it down a bit   I'm pretty sure I would have gotten just as carried away with or without my Spot though...

*shrug*

Cheers
Spoonie

[jimfab]

My .02$

For me, It is the best thing ever. Like most folks on this site, i like to ride in remote areas for days at a time. As we all know "remote" and "days at a time" means that you ride alone most of the time. There are not that many of us out there. To me, the spot gives me the piece of mind of having a riding partner without having to cary food, water or tools for him or her. I still use sound judgement when i go out alone, but i do push the limits a bit more with my electronic riding buddy. I feel that i am smart about it though. In my help message i give directions to my backup GPS so that i can be found by my friends. I always include someone in my help list that knows the area that i am going and is capable of helping if need be. I also understand my limits and always plan for the worst case. I also like to take it on group rides. You never know what kind of trouble someone else will get into. Being able to transmit an exact location to EMS / search rescue can be a big help. I know this, this is what i do for a living. Even knowing an area better than anybody else is no good if the sender cant give you even a small clue of where they are. It is sad that so many use them as an "EASY" button, but one thing i have learned in my line of work is that a true "emergency" is in the eye of the beholder. I bet that the spot numbers for "true" rescue are on par with the 911 system. I will look into it. It is also great for the wife to get live updates on travel out of cell range. No more where are you, when are you gonna be home calls. Now it is " hey, what's going on in Tuba city? can you stop in flag and grab some pine needles?". I love it.