Are Ortliebs reliable enough for such exploitation?

I have used a pair of Ortliebs rear panniers in several years of touring on dirt routes in the US (Great Divide and others). Probably much to the surprise of MartinFarrent, they are often filled to the brim with gear and food. In addition I use a 30 liter rack pack for storing lighter gear, like a mattress and sub-zero sleeping bag. I often wonder how the ultralight backpacking brigade survives those multi-day excursions in remote backcountry, but they probably don't enjoy as much as I do a tin of sliced peaches on heavy sirup when they get to a high pass.

Needless to say that I second Krampus Snail's comments. You take the bike and bags that you like and fit best to your touring style. I can think of one strong reason for not taking panniers: if you have to do a lot of hike-a-bike (i.e. pushing the bike uphill). Your right-hand hip is always blocking the space where your left-hand pannier wants to go.

My Orliebs have survived a lot of rough use and abuse. One weak point are the plastic M4 screws at the ends of the horizontal plastic bar that attaches to the rear rack. I replaced them by metal M4 screws and nuts (picture).

Food picture: at the start of a 5000 ft climb in Central Idaho (see: www.crazyguyonabike.com/doc/page/?o=tS&page_id=434642&v=SQ)

I believe I rode about 2 miles parallel to the John Wayne Trail on my way from Colfax to Cheney-WA in 2014. The condition of the trail didn't seem very inviting then. It seems that the poor condition is the result of cuts in funding of the responsible agencies. However, if you start giving parts of the trail away to adjacent land owners, you will never get them back and the trail will unravel completely. More information on http://www.railstotrails.org/trailblog/2015/october/09/proposed-closure-to-john-wayne-pioneer-trail-stalled-for-now/

I just returned home from eight fabulous weeks of biking in the US, including a big part of the Idaho Hot Springs MTB route. I can't refrain from suggesting a northern extension of the IHS route, a loop from Stanley to Warm Lake around the Frank Church Wilderness.
Rough location description : Stanley - Custer Motorway - Challis - Morgen Creek Rd - Panther Creek Rd - Shoup - Horse Creek Pass - Alta Montana -  Magruder Corridor - Elk City - Hungry Ridge Rd - Allison Creek Rd - Salmon River - Riggins - French Creek Rd - Burgdorf - Warren Wagon Rd - South Fork Salmon River - Elk Summit - Big Creek - Yellow Pine - Johnson Creek Rd - Warm Lake.
See http://ridewithgps.com/routes/10783744
It involves 550 miles of mostly dirt roads with 55,000 ft climbing. There are three 5000 ft climbs in this loop!
There are many hot springs along the loop, so it fits the general characteristic.

Last week I rode about half of the IHS route, between Warm Lake and Featherville. My favorite part was the hills in the Payette River basin between McCall and Crouch. I am sure that Casey is aware that there is lots of potential to extend the route north of McCall - maybe you'll have to carry the hot spring. See www.crazyguyonabike.com/doc/page/?o=tS&page_id=434642&v=8U

Sure, bikepacking is about mountain biking. The TransAm race is on pavement. TA race winners so far are great on both surfaces. I hope Kristof Allegaert from Belgium will participate next year and show his mettle.

24 hours ago, Kim Raeymaekers and Evan Deutsch finished 2nd and 3th after about 20d8h. Their SPOT tracks don't reveal whether they made a final sprint for second place. Their markers almost coincided for the last few days, so I think it would be by an imperceptible margin.
Adrian O Sullivan has also finished today.
See www.instagram.com/dexterskidmore/ for pictures.

Watch Jesse's latest thougths while riding his last miles to Yorktown on www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4lputbEMZA
Hist latest food intake is also on record on www.instagram.com/p/4VJzDmCb-J/?taken-by=dexterskidmore  . He should definitely visit Amarillo for the legendary 72-ounce free steak challenge ( www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Texan_Steak_Ranch )
Anyway, it's only 35 miles or so left to the finish. Great ride!

Jesse just entered Virginia after 16d8h. It took Mike Hall 15d5h to the KY/VA state line. The gap remains at about 27 hours.
Judging from his latest route snap shots on www.instagram.com/dexterskidmore/ he is still in good spirits. Impressive!

These folks got permission to park their car at the USFS office in Ketchum www.crazyguyonabike.com/doc/page/?o=tS&page_id=376118&v=Nr

I really feel sorry for Jesse. The rain and storms in Missouri and Illinois have ruined his chances of setting a new record. He entered Kentucky after 14d3h. Mike Hall needed 12d23h. So the time lag has increased to about 28 hrs. I hope he stays healthy. The wind map on http://hint.fm/wind/  suggests that he has mostly a tailwind today.

Tom, thanks for tuning in and making your own calculation.
I agree that the result will fluctuate with where the comparison is made relative to the overnight stops. If you compare two riders, the comparison will be least favorable for the one who has just had his night stop and most favorable for the one who is about to end the ride for that day.

Just at this moment Jesse is in Eminence-MO and his total time now is 12d5h12m. At this point Mike Hall passed after 11d15h. So the virtual difference is about 14 h.
However, Mike was ending his day in Ellington-MO, 26 miles after Eminence, whereas Jesse is only halfway in his regular 200-250 miles/day. So my best guess is that Jesse is now 10-12 hrs behind Mike. I admit that this guess may be biased by looking forward to a close race!

Planning the overnight stops for a strong finish, not to mention the ferry at Cave-in-Rock, requires almost as much cunning as planning the pitstops in Formula-1!

Mike Hall's official 2014 finish time is 17d16h17m, according to http://www.transambikerace.com/2014-results/ . This has only a minor effect on his estimated times for passing the state lines that I posted earlier.

Jesse Carlsson hit the Kansas/Missouri line after 11d6h3m. In my calculation Mike Hall crossed this line after 10d22h57m. If I'm right, Jesse is now only 7 hours behind MH's record schedule.
Jesse traversed Kansas in 2d1h, which took Mike Hall 2d12h. So Jesse is catching up fast!!!

I found a more accurate time for Mike Hall's ride on http://www.mountainflyermagazine.com/view.php/trans-am-bike-race-finish.html : 17d16h29m.
Taking the Yorktown point of MH's Trackleaders data as anchor, I backtracked the times when MH crossed the state lines that Jesse is heading now.
- Colorado/Kansas : 8d11h12m (Jesse passed this line after 9d3h7m)
- Kansas/ Missouri : 10d22h57m
- Missouri/Illinois : 12d6h35m
- Illinois/Kentucky : 12d23h27m
- Kentucky/Virginia : 15d5h30m
- Yorktown : 17d16h29m

I still hope that Trackleaders will corroborate my calculations. As I said before, this is a record of an established route. The Tour Divide record with its yearly reroutes and the mix of ITT and race data is a much more fuzzy target.

Well, once you get to the highest point of a route, there will be more downhill than uphill! I remember that the Ozarks stage between Farmington and the Mississipi had the highest elevation gain per mile of the entire route, above 80 ft/mi, higher than eastern Kentucky and Virginia and also higher than the Rockies.

I believe I was wrong in guessing that Jesse is on record pace. Unfortunately the intermediate timings of Mike Hall's 2014 ride on Trackleaders are incomplete http://trackleaders.com/transam14i.php?name=Mike_Hall . Taking MH published time for the entire route as 17d-16h, I backtracked MH time to Pueblo as 7d-16h-20m, compared to 8d-12h-45m for Jesse. So Jesse is now about 20 hrs behind.
It is a tricky calculation, because all Trackleaders times are relative. I hope I made a mistake! Please correct me if I am wrong!

So from now on it's mostly downhill for Jesse! I guess he is still on record schedule, but the wind is not blowing in his favor http://hint.fm/wind/ .
Why hasn't Trackleaders added the record flag to the blue dots, like they do for the TD'15? For the TransAm route the record is less prone to yearly reroutes and seasonal factors than for the GDMTB route, so it would make sense.

Regarding tire choice: I once went through the maps and added all paved sections on the main route longer than 5 miles. I came to a surprising total of 673 miles, i.e. close to 25% of the total route. This is much more than most 'official' sources, e.g. Wikipedia, have it.

Shuttle options, including those to or from AW, are on http://www.adventurecycling.org/default/assets/File/Routes_Maps/pdf/GD_shuttle.pdf

Late April is probably 2-4 weeks too early for the GDMBR. I did the GDMBR from the south starting May 20 from Tucson. We had some residual snow in the north of New Mexico (Brazos Ridge, 11,000 ft), but the high passes in southern Colorado (12,000 ft) were just cleared of snow. When we got to the north of Wyoming by mid-June, there were still patches of snow (and sticking mud from snow melt). It is well known from the Tour Divide Races that in early June many passes in northern Montana and British Columbia may have several miles ploughing through snowfields. My feeling is that a start in late April will cause you a lot of problems, not just in the south but especially in the north. After reading many blogs (and also doing the return trip north-to-south) I made a chart sketching the time window for both directions. Obviously, this is not rocket science and varies from year to year.

I have also traveled a few sections of the AZT. Generally this route is a much tougher than the GDMBR. The GD route is mainly dirt roads and forest roads with gradients well below 10%. There are just a few short single tracks over the 2700 miles that require hiking the bike. From memory : between Cuba and Abiquiu (0.5 mi), Fleecer Ridge (1 mi) and Lava Mountain Trail (1.5 mi). The AZT, although much shorter, has many such HAB sections and much longer. You can easily do the GDMBR with a big load and rear panniers, but not the AZT.

If you follow the AZT to the Grand Canyon and continue to Monument Valley, I suggest that you spend 1-2 weeks in Moab so that the sun has time to melt the snow higher up on the GD route.

Someone mentioned the route followed by Alpenzorro/Stefan Stuntz. His route through Arizona, Utah and Colorado is quite original and may inspire you too. See  www.mtb-news.de/forum/t/rockymountix-von-mexiko-nach-kanada.460366/  

Last year I took a mixed dirt/paved route through Arizona and into Utah that could be of interest. The start was early May. By mid June in northern Idaho I had to detour passes of 6000-7000 ft due to miles of snow. See http://www.crazyguyonabike.com/doc/?o=1&doc_id=13840&v=3U

Kristof Allegaert, winner of last year, already has a 10 hrs lead on number 2!
If you are interested in what bike he is on, watch this beauty Made in Flanders! 

Jaegher Steel, potatoes & farts on Vimeo

The race is on!
http://www.transcontinentalrace.com