2011 bikepacking racing predictions

[ScottM]

OK, time to do a little speculating on the upcoming season.

What records will go down?  What events are going to be huge?  Which will fade into memory, leaving only scars and post-traumatic stress?

Here are a few of my predictions:

AZT 300 - I think there is still room for improvement, and with increasing interest and competition every year, I think Kurt's record will fall.

AZT 750 - With unknown snow conditions and course changes pending, it's a little hard to say.  This event is unlikely to have many participants due to the Grand Canyon carry.  Kurt's time is solid and I don't see it going down regardless of route or snow.

Tour Divide - Seems like this event is going to be huge, with the massive exposure due to the feature film.  Most of the increase will surely be of the inexperienced type, but I'd look for several contenders for ML's record too.

Grand Loop - DH's record is safe here.  Interest seems to be waning in this beast.

Coconino Stage Race - The best GC time fell by several hours in 2010, but I think this is one that will continue to improve for several years.  Stage racing puts the racing back in self-supported racing and is big fun.  I think it's going to catch on.

CTR - This event only gets bigger, and there is always potential for super fast dark horses that may be new to bikepacking but have the fitness to make up for it.  I don't see anyone cracking Owen's record this year, but someone might get close.

Thoughts?

[wookieone]

Ahhh Man, 2011?!? What will it bring! 2010 was pretty impressive, lots more folks lining up, a few fast first's (kurt's azt 300/750!). My predictions are more and more folks and therefore more dark horse potential.

 I do see the CTR and TD being The big ones, but I hope to see more folks at the AZT 300, cause I think this event Rocks.

I agree the Grand Loop is sliding back into the unknown, and that is too bad, any word on a route there?

I hope that the bikepacking world doesn't loose perspective on the pure experience of being out there and instead obsess with only the thrill of winning, setting records?! (Myself incuded) Amazes me how many folks line up for a 300-2700 mile race never having bikepacked, that's crazy.

a few cents......Jefe

[Done]

Amazes me how many folks line up for a 300-2700 mile race never having bikepacked, that's crazy.

Well, I had to start somewhere! 

I hope that the bikepacking world doesn't loose perspective on the pure experience of being out there and instead obsess with only the thrill of winning, setting records?!

Since I'm one of those guys who will never set a course record, you can rest assured that there will be at least one guy out there next year who's focusing on the experience--and I rode the CTR with a bunch of other slow(ish) guys who also seemed to be similarly minded. We may not be exciting, but we are excited!

[wookieone]

My point, Toby, is that bikepacking is about going out into the woods, hills, mountains and having THAT experience, no race, no time limits, no one to catch you. I love racing, don't get me wrong, but we racers get so hung up on speed, time, weights, personel set ups, records etc. I am quilty, I have hardly done a bikepacking trip that wasn't a race in the past few seasons. I am ashamed of myself! I started bikepacking with a dog and a Bob trailer, every weekend out riding, camping exploring. It was a summer to remember and reflect on. So I am saying to all, racers, newbies, etc, don't worry about all the gadgets and gizmos, distance and speed, just get out there, bikepacking is an incredible experience and it doesn't have to be a race to be legit.
 ok maybe getting closer to a whole dollar....Jefe

[Done]

Agreed on all points, Jefe!

[Jilleo]

One race you forgot to mention: The Iditarod Invitational. The final results of the race are of course hugely dependent on trail conditions, but there's a super strong field for this year's ITI, so I'd expect to see the records seriously challenged and possibly fall. Janice Tower and Louise Kobin are strong contenders for Tracey's McGrath record, as is Tracey herself, although she has the southern route to Nome to focus on. Pete has several fast but less experienced riders to contend with for his record, but if decent conditions hold I think this might be the year Jeff Oatley finally snatches it from him.

As for Tour Divide, based on the number of inquries I've seen trickling by, this may be the year Divide racing experiences its awkward adolescent growing phase. I think the reason TD hasn't published its starting day on its Web site yet is to help curb the influx, although this is just speculation. It's going to be difficult to keep this event under the radar if 100-plus mostly inexperienced contenders show up at the race start, but this may be the case. That will be interesting to see. As for records, I think Matt Lee's record is safer than he thinks, unless some serious dark horse contenders show up at the start in 2011. No one can beat Matt on experience, and experience makes a huge difference in a race this long. Many of the other more experienced and fast Divide racers are not all that likely to try this year, just based on my limited knowledge of outside obligations and other factors. (i.e. families, jobs and inclinations. I think John Nobile has had enough for a while, and Pete B. may still think he's "Divide-cursed.")

As for the female TD record, that is of course very likely to be taken down by many notches, but I think it will be by a woman with some experience in multi-day bikepacking, rather than a fast novice.

Also, does anyone know if there's been any formal chatter for Colorado Trail Race 2011 on this site or elsewhere? I'm interested in working up a  journalism piece on this year's event, and I'd love to chat with anyone planning to toe the line this summer ahead of time.

[Roland Sturm]

It's going to be difficult to keep this event under the radar if 100-plus mostly inexperienced contenders show up at the race start, but this may be the case. That will be interesting to see.

If Jill's prediction is right, then TD 2011 may get a new record for highest rate of DNF.

Scott's revival of the original race's website wasn't meant to deal with the overflow crowd, or was it?  

[ScottM]

Scott's revival of the original race's website wasn't meant to deal with the overflow crowd, or was it? 

No, it only went down for a couple days.  I could see a few folks going to the GDR who don't want to be a part of such a big event, but I doubt it'll be too many.

[ScottM]

Jill -- thanks for the ITI predictions.  Hopefully folks will chime in with predictions on other races too.

I agree with your TD thinking.  ML's record is pretty safe I would say.

I haven't seen any 2011 CTR chatter.  Now is as good a time as any to start a thread here...

[sherpaxc]

I don't want to be the person who starts the thread, but I do have some CTR questions for next summer.

[Done]

I don't want to be the person who starts the thread, but I do have some CTR questions for next summer.

OK, I will!  

http://www.bikepacking.net/forum/index.php/topic,1698.0.html

[Jilleo]

If Jill's prediction is right, then TD 2011 may get a new record for highest rate of DNF.

I think that distinction still goes to Trans Iowa.

[Done]

Ultra racing is a very small world, and I expect that pretty much every record will fall easily as the sport grows. More participation and media coverage will equal greater exposure for potential sponsors--and thus more professional riders will be lining up. I think that well-branded guys like Jeff Kerkove will soon outnumber self-supported amateurs.

A lot of sports have gone through similar transitions. Pretty much everything from surfing, to ice climbing, to sailing. The "founding amateurs" generally seem like unconquerable demigods until the pros with big paychecks and long training days arrive on the scene.

In a way, I think that ultra-racing is in its golden age. While I don't have a problem with the pros showing up, I think that everyone will look back fondly at the current state of the sport: a bunch of little-known visionaries out discovering something new and amazing. Exposure and money will change things.

I suppose, to those who started this sport just a few short years ago, things have already changed a lot. Instead of a handful of friends showing up to race, "outsides" like me have joined the fray. The more people, the more issues, some good and some bad. In the "bad" category, the CTR had its first certified cheater last year, which would have been utterly unthinkable in 2007. In the "good" category, a bunch of inspired newbies had a great time together racing through Colorado together.

I'm guessing that it'll be two or three years before records are crushed. First the sport has to grow enough for sponsors (and their money) to take notice--which is already starting to happen. The Divide movie has played a huge role in accelerating the transformation, as evident by the significant number of people who I've met who are thinking about racing. Once critical mass is achieved, the money will flow--and records will fall.

Whatever happens, I hope that there will still be room for all types of people to participate in the "big" races like the TD and CTR. In other competitive sports, the amateurs oftentimes get sidelined or relegated to smaller venues.

[Jilleo]

First the sport has to grow enough for sponsors (and their money) to take notice--which is already starting to happen. The Divide movie has played a huge role in accelerating the transformation, as evident by the significant number of people who I've met who are thinking about racing. Once critical mass is achieved, the money will flow--and records will fall.

Once critical mass is reached, records won't be the things that fall. It's all but impossible to go "legit" with races like the TD or CTR, which is what it would take to actually inject money into them. I discussed the issue recently with a friend who promotes trail run and mountain bike races in the Northwest. There are so many different agencies, states and private entities to deal with that acquiring all of the permits needed is unlikely, at best. Parks Canada is already breathing down the neck of the TD. There's a legitimate chance that a Banff start won't even be possible in the near future, at least not without someone getting a big ticket or even arrested. That's the reality. Dreaming about golden ages and all-inclusive participation is a nice fantasy, but the truth is the typical ultra-endurance race format isn't sustainable under the current rate of growth. Not that I can predict what it may become in the future, but I am right now a very interested observer. My guess: More fracturing of events, more races overall, no big money.

[Jilleo]

On a different note, I also don't know that I believe participation of elite athletes would necessarily "crush" records in self-supported ultra-endurance events, even today's records. There are so many factors to deal with besides simply riding a bicycle, and over time these factors gain more and more influence in the overall result. There seems to be a diminishing rate of return as far as athleticism goes the longer an event takes. Think about it. If you take the best ultra-runners in the world and line them up for a 100-mile event, there is a good chance you can predict the result. Now have them run a 1,000-mile race. In a race like that, the athlete with the most perseverance, best plan, best attitude, and not a small amount of good luck will probably win. It's a completely different game. Which is why I think it has a tendency to draw the "non-athletic" among us.

[sherpaxc]

I would have to consider ML an elite athlete.  Pretty dang nice guy too.

Jill...you're such a runner now.     Coming on here trying to make examples using runners.  Geez, what's the world coming too!

[Done]

Dreaming about golden ages and all-inclusive participation is a nice fantasy...

It's not really a fantasy, or a dream. At the moment, these races ARE all-inclusive events. Anyone who wants to can just show up and ride. I love it!

...but the truth is the typical ultra-endurance race format isn't sustainable under the current rate of growth.

I think that we agree that the sport is changing quickly. I don't know when critical mass will be achieved, but I suspect that it'll be soon. Problematic. If the past is any indicator, money and structure have a way of greasing the skids of bureaucracies, which might end up happening with ultra racing.

...no big money.

How many racers were paid by sponsors to ride various ultra racers in the first years? How many were paid last year? I don't know the exact numbers, but I think that there has been a significant increase. Maybe we differ in our definition of "big money," but I think that paid professional athletes are a different animal than unpaid amateurs (even those why manage to get some free gear).

I would have to consider ML an elite athlete.  Pretty dang nice guy too.

ML is decidedly an elite athlete! And while I haven't met him, I'll take your word that he's a nice guy too. Now, imagine a race with 50+ ML-level riders (and better)--with unlimited training time, big equipment budgets, etc. I suspect that ML is a big fish in a small pond, and that a bigger pool will result in a lot more big fish! I expect that guys like Jeff Kerkove will become more common, as his sponsors obviously saw the value of paying him to race the CTR this year.

I'm thinking back to the original RAAM days. Most (all?) of those guys were pretty much fringe types; some even did the race self-supported. As the event grew, it became a TV sensation--and the money flowed. Looks a little different now. I'm not saying worse, just not the sort of race that guys like most of us could enter anymore. Same is true of the Ironman, Vendee Globe, "adventure racing," etc.

But not to worry, Jill, I'm not falling into a nostalgic stupor. There will always be fun and exciting things for the "non-athletic" among us to do. Hopefully it won't come to pass that "a Banff start won't even be possible in the near future."

[Jilleo]

Anyone can enter RAAM. You just need to raise enough money to pay the entry fee and support crews, and you need to be fast enough to make the time cutoffs, which of course few people can achieve without enormous amounts of training and/or talent. Same goes for all of the other sports you mentioned. None of them are exclusive, just a little more difficult and or expensive to break into. And with the exception of Ironman, they're all still fringe sports. But they are legitimate races, meaning they're legally recognized as races.

I only bring up ultra-running as an analogy because I still have connections to the top level of that sport, whearas I have no idea what's happening at the top level of endurance cycling. But I can tell you that none of those guys are making a living doing their sport, even at the top level, and I would argue that ultra-running is quite a few years further along on the commercial scale than ultra-cycling. So whatever happens, any concerns about "big money" (and I define "big money" as enough to actually live off of, through sponsorships and otherwise, basically enough to call oneself a "pro") are a long way off.

But, either way, money isn't the problem. The problem is the cloak-and-dagger format of "mass-start individual time trial" that allows self-supported racing to continue without permits, insurance, central organization, etc. Increasing interest will jump-start actions by bureaucracies that had been inclined to ignore these events in the past. Even ultraendurance cycling has seen it happen with the demise of an organized Kokopelli Trail Race. Expect similar actions to crop up in the future. Some events will continue to find ways to remain underground (the KTR has, to some degree.) But I wouldn't expect anyone to actually find a way to make a race like the Tour Divide legit. I think the organization, permits and insurance alone would necessitate an entry fee of several thousand dollars, at least. And of course, most elite and pro athletes are going to expect some level of support. Doubt many sponsors would see enough of a return to support an athlete using most of an entire season to train and participate in such an event.

[Slowerthensnot]

My point, Toby, is that bikepacking is about going out into the woods, hills, mountains and having THAT experience, no race, no time limits, no one to catch you. I love racing, don't get me wrong, but we racers get so hung up on speed, time, weights, personel set ups, records etc. I am quilty, I have hardly done a bikepacking trip that wasn't a race in the past few seasons. I am ashamed of myself! I started bikepacking with a dog and a Bob trailer, every weekend out riding, camping exploring. It was a summer to remember and reflect on. So I am saying to all, racers, newbies, etc, don't worry about all the gadgets and gizmos, distance and speed, just get out there, bikepacking is an incredible experience and it doesn't have to be a race to be legit.
 ok maybe getting closer to a whole dollar....Jefe

SPOT on! Jefe!

[Done]

Interesting discussion, Jill.

Anyone can enter RAAM. You just need to raise enough money to pay the entry fee and support crews...

In my mind, that makes it pretty exclusive! Money is a barrier.

So whatever happens, any concerns about "big money" (and I define "big money" as enough to actually live off of, through sponsorships and otherwise, basically enough to call oneself a "pro") are a long way off.

JK was paid to race the CTR this year, and he made it clear in his blog that the CTR was his primary focus in 2010. I don't know whether ML gets paid by Cannondale, but I hope/expect that he gets more than a new bike! While I agree nobody is earning a living yet, evidence suggests that we're heading that direction. Since Cannondale and Ergon are finding it worthwhile to pump money into the sport, I don't see why other companies wouldn't follow suit.

But, either way, money isn't the problem. The problem is the cloak-and-dagger format of "mass-start individual time trial" that allows self-supported racing to continue without permits, insurance, central organization, etc. Increasing interest will jump-start actions by bureaucracies that had been inclined to ignore these events in the past.

Government bureaucracies tend to be somewhat willing to overlook low-profile activities that have no commercial value. As corporations pump money into sponsored riders, the exposure and commercial value of ultra racing will increase--and government oversight will increase too.

Some events will continue to find ways to remain underground (the KTR has, to some degree.)

Yep, I agree. There's definitely a renegade spirit to ultra racing, and it'll survive whether or not the sport goes mainstream. I don't expect that the pros will participate in "off the radar" races much, because they won't bring much sponsorship exposure. I'll probably probably gravitate toward this segment of racing!

Doubt many sponsors would see enough of a return to support an athlete using most of an entire season to train and participate in such an event.

Very few events support entire careers, although examples certainly exist. But I expect that ultra racing will become part of the "circuit" for sponsored endurance racers. It's already happening.

Increasing interest will jump-start actions by bureaucracies that had been inclined to ignore these events in the past. Even ultraendurance cycling has seen it happen with the demise of an organized Kokopelli Trail Race.

The KTR could yet become an "official" race. When I learned that the BLM shut it down, I contacted them to see what it would take to make it "legitimate." The answer was surprising: a slight change to the course to deal with parking congestion, an insurance rider of about $20-30 per person, and a little paperwork. I bailed on doing anything about it, primarily due to the reactions from many riders in this forum. But somebody else could easily make a full-on KTR race--and I pretty much guarantee that it would draw a HUGE amount of big money (in the form of sponsored riders, etc.)

If there's money to be made, those who want to make it will eventually alter the landscape to make it happen. The TD has national attention at the moment, and savvy sponsors and pro athletes are paying attention. Maybe the increased exposure will drive it underground before it becomes an commercial event, but I think that there's a growing possibility that that it'll transform into something more "official" in the coming years. While government agencies can shut down a bunch of ragamuffin riders, I expect that companies like Cannondale and Ergon will be more than happy to play their game if there's enough economic gain.

The wildcard is what our "leaders" are going to go. Guys like Matthew Lee and Stefan, who had the vision to "organize" these events to begin with are actually pretty powerful and influential. They may not want to bear the responsibility, but they have the ability to shape the future of ultra racing. It'll be an interesting ride!