2011 bikepacking racing predictions

[Jilleo]

Kerkove gets paid to promote Ergon products. There's a big difference between that and a fully sponsored athlete. Using this logic, I could argue that I'm a sponsored Rocky Mountain bicycle athlete, since my friend Keith is paid to promote Rocky Mountain, and through this procured bikes and entry fee for us to compete as a team in TransRockies 2010. The company didn't care that we were rambling mediocre athletes. They wanted Keith specifically in that race so he could work his bike promotion magic, which tends to yield more returns for companies than strong showings in obscure races. Kerkove is both a strong athlete and a talented promoter, which is why he's valuable to Ergon. On a side note, Rocky Mountain actually dropped its sponsorship of TransRockies for 2011, putting the future of this race in jeapordy. One example of big money stepping away from endurance racing, not toward it.

I don't know why you assume Matt Lee makes any sort of money from this endeavour. As I recall he has emphasized several times in the past that he does not. Free bike, maybe. Not exactly a huge incentive to take three to four weeks off from your real job to ramble down dirt roads for an event that is only tracked by a couple thousand people, at most. Incentives for everyone involved still have to come from within, and there's no real evidence that this is going to change any time soon.

Anyway, none of this was part of my original point, which was the predicition that permitting issues are likely bog down these events before for-profit racing promoters even realize they exist, let alone believe they have any potential to make money. But I'm like you, Toby, I like to argue for argument's sake. Which is why we're probably going to permanently derail this thread. :-)

[Done]

Anyway, none of this was part of my original point, which was the predicition that permitting issues are likely bog down these events before for-profit racing promoters even realize they exist, let alone believe they have any potential to make money. But I'm like you, Toby, I like to argue for argument's sake. Which is why we're probably going to permanently derail this thread. :-)

It's been an interesting discussion, Jill, and I've enjoyed the exchange. You're right, though--it has become a distraction to this thread. Maybe we can pick this up over a Lara bar on the trail sometime! Cheers!

[jeffkerkove]

You guys are silly  

I have never been paid to race a bike.  Don't know if I would want to.....it would take the fun out of it.  I ride/race a bike because I am an addict...and have passion for it.  Just so happens my kit has partner logos on it.  Hi, my name is Jeff and I ride my bike too much  

Jill is correct.  I am employed by Ergon USA, Inc.  I wear many hats for them.....from marketing to customer service to dealer visits, etc.   This is where I get my pay check.  The bikes, the team kit, etc.....they are benefits of the job, just like health insurance.

Seriously, CTR was a huge interest to me from the stand point that it is a new adventure that required a lot of planning and prep.  The same reason I stepped into the 24 hour solo racing ring back in 2002.  CTR is a huge undertaking....regardless of a persons status on the race circuit.  Everyone still has to train.  Everyone still has to weed through the massive amounts of gear to take...or not take.  Then test.....and test.....then test again.  My training/prep is no secret.  You can by the training plan from LW Coaching.  Prep for CTR, at least for me, was a year long lifestyle change. CTR is what I like about mtbing...and why I moves to CO in the first place: Epic high alpine adventure riding.

Was there a value to Ergon and other partners of the Topeak-Ergon team?  Of course.  There is story that comes out of it.  Not just my story....but also a story from the other 50 racers that toe the line. This brings a lifestyle to our brand.....creditability.

CTR is also great for product testing.  Not just for Ergon and Topeak, but also for other brands like Continental and SRAM.  I had some prototype gear this year....as did a few other riders in the front of the race.

For 2011 I plan to return...and it is my main focus of the year, meaning every time I clip into the pedals of my bike it is prep for CTR. Hands down, CTR is the coolest adventure/event I have ever done on a bike.  It is what drives me right now.  It is mtbing in its purest form!  Bikepacking has changed my perspective on what can be done on a mtb.

Now, how do we guarantee no rain in 2011?  

[sherpaxc]

Maybe you should have prototyped an extra pair of socks huh?   Here's hoping for no cut out old school shoes and no trench foot in 2011

Seriously, please be dry this year!

[jeffkerkove]

Here's hoping for no cut out old school shoes and no trench foot in 2011

Amen!

[JayP]

Anyone can enter RAAM. You just need to raise enough money to pay the entry fee and support crews, and you need to be fast enough to make the time cutoffs, which of course few people can achieve without enormous amounts of training and/or talent.

FYI
as a solo, one must qualify and/or get an approved current proven race resume. not just for the people that can put the funds together. oh, and along with the training and talent, experince goes a long way.
had to chime in on this since this is on my radar and i earned a spot.

[SimonK]

Just to add to the discussion, you might be interested in this 'legit' 3,374 km event in Oz - huge entry fee and huge prize money. It'll be interesting to see who turns up and who does well.

http://www.bikemagic.com/event-features/trans-oz-bike-ride-launched/8632.html

[krefs]

Getting back to Scott's initial post...here's my assessment.

AZT 300 - At least 2 more hours should come off last year's route if it is raced again.  The key is getting over Mt Lemmon before nightfall and staying as far away from the cholla as possible.

AZT 750 - The route used last year (with the snow detours) should go in under 7 days, but I doubt that's going to happen any time soon. Some focused trail work on the Highline Trail could easily make that section hours faster.  As Scott predicts, the Grand Canyon portage is going to keep most people away, and for good reason.

Tour Divide - Back-of-the-pack racers will probably face pillaged stocks in the tiny convenience stores in the north and route locals annoyed by the steady flow of stinky, starving, dehydrated TD riders, a likely consequence of an increase in participants.  If mud, fires, and deep La Nina snow in Montana don't present too much added difficulty, ML's record will not survive 2011.  I'm also going to wager that Jill's record stands a good chance of being broken this year.

Grand Loop - DH's record is indeed safe here.  It probably could be beaten, but for a number of reasons, the GL isn't on the mind of that many bikepackers.

Coconino Stage Race - This record should keep falling by a bit every year. I'd like to have a go at it at some point :-)

CTR - I doubt a novice could ever crack Owen's record.  There are a few riders out there who have the experience, drive, and strength to do it, but it's going to be a tall order to topple the CTR King.  I predict the winner in 2011 will fall 45 minutes shy.

Simon, that Oz race looks pretty phenomenal.  If it was self-supported and not outrageously expensive, I'd make the trip down for it!

[jimfab]

No predictions here, I know what will happen. I will compete in the AZT 300 and not set any records doing it. However i will have fun and suffer a bit. 

Rock on- JF

[Spoonie]

Just to add to the discussion, you might be interested in this 'legit' 3,374 km event in Oz - huge entry fee and huge prize money. It'll be interesting to see who turns up and who does well.

There's also a few non-legit events popping up and I know at least two guys planning to ride the BNT from end to end, one of those is planning a "faster" approach.

Cheers
Spoonie

[DCrozier]

In reading blogs and race reports last year's Tour Divide already had 8 people to a hotel room and that was with 50ish starters.  You're right that small stores and hotels that people have read about and planned on might not be available with 100 starters.  I'm one of those newbies.  An ITT approach might be the way to go, or 2012.

DC

[Kevin Montgomery]

I predict a lot of people will ride their bikes.

[JMeiser]

I think that distinction still goes to Trans Iowa.

True enough...It's not an easy one given the season.  Many try, few finish.  At 2-2 I have my own doubts/disinterest in riding it again.  That and I crave mountains...

[LyndaW]

I predict more ladies will cross the finish line in bikepacking events in 2011...and in the process set some records.

[wookieone]

I hope Lynda's right, more women!!!

[Chad B]

I'll chime in....

AZT 300:The weather is going to be cold again, having the biggest turn out ever. The record will be broken not by a rider doing the race, but a rider doing a solo ITT. The date is key to this race...I also predict a few people struggling to make it out due to lack of foresight to do their taxes.


Grand Loop: People that have said "I will never do that route again" may indeed come out and do this route. Although I have a feeling that the GL might only see 2-3 racers in the next few years before its eventual demise.

CTR: Record breaking participants in 2011 will make this race even more anticipated. Just thinking about doing that race in the amount of time that Owen did it makes my head hurt. I just hope to be able to make it this year.

Coconino: Both versions (stage and ITT) will have new records broken this year. A small race, it will stay small for a few number of years. The one question we will all eagerly ask ourselves...will Maverick continue to stock Don Miguel burritos?

Tour Divide: Scott Morris and I just sent in our letter's of intent. Can't wait to ride this one!

Dixie: Will this one make a comeback?

New races: I expect to see at least one more bikepacking race this year. As Jefe pointed out, it is all about getting out and riding our bikes. With 40+ people lining up to race, a few people might start to ask themselves...could this be done with a smaller, better setting? If you just asked that, the answer is *yes*, we just need a few more races out there. Think *loops* also...

[krefs]

Tour Divide: Scott Morris and I just sent in our letter's of intent. Can't wait to ride this one!

Chad, are you and Scott going to challenge the tandem record?  You should...

[ScottM]

Chad, are you and Scott going to challenge the tandem record?  You should...

Recumbent tandem, yes.

[krefs]

Recumbent tandem, yes.

Oh, you don't know how much I was hoping you'd say exactly that!  But only so long as it's the side-by-side variety for the Bromancers.

[Marshal]

In reading blogs and race reports last year's Tour Divide already had 8 people to a hotel room and that was with 50ish starters.  You're right that small stores and hotels that people have read about and planned on might not be available with 100 starters.  I'm one of those newbies.  An ITT approach might be the way to go, or 2012.

DC

This might seem like an issue till you think it all the way through. 

Hotels can be full with or with out some TDR racers stacking up the first few nights.  But--there were several "I got the last room" nights over the route, but never due solely to TDR racers.  On night 1 in Sparwood, due to some type of local 'Miners Day' celebration, I got the last room and wound up sharing it.  Had I not been able to get a room I would have stealth camped somewhere in Sparwood--no big deal. Basically if someone is not able to deal with a full hotel ; IE having to use their camp gear then maybe the TDR is not the right adventure for them.

Food is another issue, if you need it you have to get it--but even if you are racer #100 arriving at virtually any of the on route convenience stores --their WILL BE food.  Maybe not your 1st choice but there will be something, again--no big deal.

So I wouldn't let a big starting field stop me from racing--after about 3 days the field will be so spread out the starting size wont matter in the least.

Oh by the way--these small stores and hotels WANT as MUCH of your (and fellow racer's) business as you will give them.  All they expect is the same common courtesy they would ask of any customer. Oh and a typical customer for many is a camper, fisherman, construction worker, muddy ranch hand or a hunter in the fall.  Some of them might even be as dirty and smell as bad as a TDR racer.