2011 bikepacking racing predictions

[DaveH]

Fun topic, lets see...

The Dixie isn't making a comeback, it never went away!  However the Dixie Lite and Dixie 300 are morphing into the Dixie 200.  The unrideable bits get the ax, the sweet stuff remains, and there is one section in particular that's quite remote.  A new record will be set this year, that's my prediction

AZT 300:  record will fall.  Todd Tanner will come back and rock it. 

AZT 750:  quite safe.

Grand Loop:  conditions dependent for sure.  The record will be hard to topple (especially in warm or wet conditions), but that's what they are there for.  To challenge them.  I'm not aware of anyone with it on their radar, but to do so will take either a motivated Jefe or a bigger horse of a rider that is not as affected by large loads, and is wildly passionate about it.  Somebody like Kerkove would be my pick, except he has eyes only for CTR.  I don't think the recently discussed access issues should deter a rider from trying.  The spot in question is quite lonely and nobody will be watching at 2am (about the time I usually pass that spot).

TD:  who cares about the record, it's the show that is most entertaining.  The potential for political fireworks is strong, and will be avoided only by some solid reorganization.  Either case will be interesting to watch develop.

CTR:  Jason Shelman makes a comeback and goes sub 4 days on a SS.

Racing vs. bikepacking:  I predict the lines will get clearer, technology will continue to develop for racers, and will continue to be low priority for bikepackers.

[sherpaxc]

Racing vs. bikepacking:  I predict the lines will get clearer, technology will continue to develop for racers, and will continue to be low priority for bikepackers.

What do you mean by this?  It's an interesting statement, just not sure I follow.

[Done]

What do you mean by this?  It's an interesting statement, just not sure I follow.

A guess: slower guys like me are bikepackers, while fast guys like Dave are racers? 

[DaveH]

Toby you are funny.  Racing isn't about speed, its about intent.  From that perspective, when you and Owen line up for CTR next year you will be more alike than not, sharing a common goal.  There are ways technology can assist with some of those goals (common to a racer), that are not particularly compatible with the reason many choose to bikepack.  Hence the difference. 

Of course it is still confounding for those of us that do both 

Clear as mud I know...

[Done]

Toby you are funny.  Racing isn't about speed, its about intent.  From that perspective, when you and Owen line up for CTR next year you will be more alike than not, sharing a common goal.  There are ways technology can assist with some of those goals (common to a racer), that are not particularly compatible with the reason many choose to bikepack.  Hence the difference. 

Of course it is still confounding for those of us that do both 

Clear as mud I know...

Yep, I was just tweaking your toe for old time's sake, thus the wink. 

We're on the same page vis-a-vis gear, although I definitely will argue against any further comparisons between Owen and me. I think that fast racers like you and Owen stand apart from guys like me--and not just because you're much faster. You lined up at the CTR with reasonable intentions of winning, while I was just hoping to finish in reasonable style. Psychologically, there's a huge difference in terms of risks, tactics, etc. While keeping it together for 8 relatively slow days on the CTR has its own challenges, the pressure of a super-fast performance is in an entirely different league. Hell, even with my commitment to ride a day or two faster in 2011, I'm about as much like Owen as Tweety is to Batman!

But, again, I fully agree with your distinction regarding gear. It'll be interesting to see how how racing and touring gear evolve and improve to fit their respective requirements, and to see what they borrow from each other as well. What does your crystal ball reveal?

[BobM]

"Oh by the way--these small stores and hotels WANT as MUCH of your (and fellow racer's) business as you will give them.  All they expect is the same common courtesy they would ask of any customer. Oh and a typical customer for many is a camper, fisherman, construction worker, muddy ranch hand or a hunter in the fall.  Some of them might even be as dirty and smell as bad as a TDR racer."

Right on, Marshal!  I don't think increased business is going to piss anyone off in the little towns along the route.  I live in an out-of-the-way former mining area that depends on tourism and you can walk into any store or restaurant around here in any sort of outfit and they will be glad to have your money!

As to predictions, I'm only really interested in TD and I will be surprised if many more than 50 sign up.  3-4 weeks for the event plus countless training hours plus $$$ will limit the field regardless of interest.  I also predict no one will be arrested or detained; it's a public trail so no individual could reasonably be hassled - the authorities would need to identify organizers in order to enforce regs.  I can be in compliance by leaving at 10 instead of 9 and once you hit the Goat Creek trailhead on the Smith-Dorrien at mile 12 it's all public roads and trails.

Bob

[Chad B]

it's all public roads

+1

[BobM]

As to predictions, I'm only really interested in TD and I will be surprised if many more than 50 sign up.  3-4 weeks for the event plus countless training hours plus $$$ will limit the field regardless of interest...

Bob

A few more sign-ups and I strike out on prediction #1.  Hope it's not a trend.

Bob

[joeydurango]

I would love it if Shelman made a comeback to the CTR in 2011.  Fun guy to ride with, if one can keep up...

[DesertDog]

New races: I expect to see at least one more bikepacking race this year. As Jefe pointed out, it is all about getting out and riding our bikes. With 40+ people lining up to race, a few people might start to ask themselves...could this be done with a smaller, better setting? If you just asked that, the answer is *yes*, we just need a few more races out there. Think *loops* also...

I do have a new course I'll somewhat introduce here - The Deschutes-Willamette 250 - Central Oregon Goodness!  Visualized it and mapped it while I was up in OR the first half of October.  And did it with a stuck-down Fox Triad rear shock.  Got to finish putting the pieces together and get a true final mileage tally, but I plan to have new pages up for it and the Apache by the end of February.  Keep an eye out on www.dirtypursuits.com  Might just be an open course/ITT for now?  Hey, I'm in Vegas and the course is 1,000 miles away!  Just not sure I will be able to get up there to put on an actual event.  Course starts outside Sisters and goes up by Three Creeks Lake, down the Met-Windigo Trail, thru the Santiam Pass area, McKenzie River Trail, FRs to Alpine Trail to Oakridge, up to Bunchgrass to Fuji to Waldo to Charlton to Cultus, on to Sun River/Deschutes River Trail, then the Phil's Trail System, then finish with FRs to Peterson Ridge trails and back to the start/finish area.

The Apache 200 will be back for it's first 'official' year.  Just a few minor changes from last year.  Heard from Troy Marino and he's looking to try to ITT it in under 30hr.  Chad:  What do you think about cross-promoting the Apache on the AES schedule/site?

I'd like to put on a 2-day stage event in the Pinteop and Big Lake areas too .  Shorten the Pinetop/WMTS loop to 60 miles, then the 75 mile loop around the Big Lake area.  What do you all think about that for the weekend of June 11 and 12?

Yes, I agree, there needs to be more shorter loop courses.  Courses that can definitely be done in a 2 or 3 day weekend, depending on rider strength.  

[Chad B]

Let me know when you are down in these parts, I can ride on the weekends.

[Juan Speeder]

Someone unknown will crack the top 5 at the CTR.