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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #40 on: September 29, 2011, 09:26:42 PM
ScottM
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« Reply #40 on: September 29, 2011, 09:26:42 PM »

So far we have been blessed with *really* good weather for the Coco each year.  Hope that holds, but it does sound questionable, at ~1 week out.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #41 on: October 02, 2011, 09:32:29 AM
Foster


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« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2011, 09:32:29 AM »

Weather Update

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY COLD TROUGH STILL FORECAST BY 
  ALL MODELS TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST U.S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS 
  EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH 
  GUSTY WINDS...RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. 
  HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL 
  FOR EARLY OCTOBER. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW 
  COULD MIX IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY AS LOW AS 6500 FEET ELEVATION 
  IN NW AZ. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AND 
  SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INCLUDING FLAGSTAFF.

Its gonna be a cold one.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #42 on: October 02, 2011, 02:20:54 PM
Chad B
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« Reply #42 on: October 02, 2011, 02:20:54 PM »

Hmmmmmmm....I guess that be a welcomed change from the current 90 degrees down here in Tucson.  icon_biggrin
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #43 on: October 02, 2011, 02:45:07 PM
AZTtripper
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« Reply #43 on: October 02, 2011, 02:45:07 PM »

Yeah a 20 degree drop in Tucson sign me up a 20 degree drop on top of Mingus not so much.

Maybe I am glad I have to work Friday.

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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #44 on: October 02, 2011, 07:26:09 PM
tRoy


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« Reply #44 on: October 02, 2011, 07:26:09 PM »

anyone wanna go the next weekend? 
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #45 on: October 02, 2011, 07:36:10 PM
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« Reply #45 on: October 02, 2011, 07:36:10 PM »

I am actually psyched for the cooler weather, I don't deal well with the heat.  It'll be cooler down in the verde valley during the daytime.  If you do it as an ITT you can camp at lower elevations and escape the cold nights.  Which is what I am considering.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #46 on: October 02, 2011, 08:05:09 PM
tRoy


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« Reply #46 on: October 02, 2011, 08:05:09 PM »

cold. usually helps me out too....  It is the wet that is making me think twice about a Friday departure....
Mud on the first day is the some of the worst mud I know in these parts.... 
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #47 on: October 02, 2011, 08:22:29 PM
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« Reply #47 on: October 02, 2011, 08:22:29 PM »

Ya I know what you mean.  That is some heinous mud out there, I'm gonna watch what happens with precip as well and maybe go check things out thursday afternoon. 
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #48 on: October 02, 2011, 09:17:29 PM
Chad B
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« Reply #48 on: October 02, 2011, 09:17:29 PM »

I could go for a Thursday afternoon start if anyone wants to get a jump on the weather. Err....wait, it looks like it might rain more on Thursday. Hmmmmm....might be a waiting game, gotta get more accurate forecasts.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #49 on: October 02, 2011, 09:24:57 PM
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« Reply #49 on: October 02, 2011, 09:24:57 PM »

This site here usually gives a good detailed low down of what is to come.  It is updated 4 times a day.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?prod=XXXAFDFGZ&wfo=FGZ

Things don't look to bad actually.  Looks like a quick one the quickly leaves the area, crossing my fingers.  Also another site if you are into looking at forecast models is the mesoscale analysis page for the SW region.  Lots of cool stuff on here.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=12





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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #50 on: October 02, 2011, 10:04:27 PM
ScottM
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« Reply #50 on: October 02, 2011, 10:04:27 PM »

And most weather forecasts err on the hysteric side.  Let's hope for more cold than rain.  Stage1 could indeed be a mess.  One thought is to leave later in the day on Friday (since it's an open start), hopefully giving it more time to dry out.  Most people should be able to start midday and still make it by sunset to stage stop 1, or there's always night riding -- better an hour or two of night riding than deep mud.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #51 on: October 03, 2011, 08:59:21 AM
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« Reply #51 on: October 03, 2011, 08:59:21 AM »

Actually if we leave at the scheduled time that might be better because all the moisture in the soil will be frozen for a couple of hours, maybe until about 10-11 am if it is cold enough.  Which gives us plenty of time to move through the AZ trail section to the forest service roads before things start to thaw.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #52 on: October 05, 2011, 03:08:38 PM
ScottM
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« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2011, 03:08:38 PM »

Well, I'm not a betting man, but when I see this:



I generally start taking the forecasters seriously.  Smiley  Good news is the weather looks good after the storm passes -- perfect, perhaps, starting on Saturday.

It looks like the organized stage race with a Friday AM start is splintering a bit, with several people/groups considering other options such as starting later.  I'm not sure how many are really planning on it since there haven't been many SPOT signups, and that's usually a good way to tell who is actually in, and who just commented they were "in" six months before the actual event.

Here's who I know about, or have heard from recently:

Chad Brown
Troy M, Joe Breeze, James and Smithers
Eric Foster
Aaron G and Jen
Matt Field
Sharon Sells + Michael B

Anyone else reading here that is planning on attending?

I am still debating about attending or not, since my back is still not 100% after a summer's worth of abuse in Colorado.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2011, 03:12:12 PM by ScottM » Logged

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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #53 on: October 05, 2011, 03:23:27 PM
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« Reply #53 on: October 05, 2011, 03:23:27 PM »

I am starting at the planned time friday morning.  Anyone else doing the same?  Just curious what other peoples plans are.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #54 on: October 05, 2011, 03:24:58 PM
Chad B
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« Reply #54 on: October 05, 2011, 03:24:58 PM »

Traditionally, we have met at this place at 7am for some food before we head out:

Mike & Ronda's
21 South Milton Road, Flagstaff, AZ 86001
(928) 774-7008 ‎

I plan on being there at said time to eat and chat before we ride. I plan on continuing to check the weather reports and get local insight, but it sounds like too much rain (thereby making the route into a clay peanut butter slog fest) would require either a bypass or a change in direction. I favor the later if this be the case. Either way, I will there in Flagstaff with a bike and SPOT to ride in one direction or the other Smiley

See you on Friday!
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #55 on: October 05, 2011, 07:00:07 PM
tRoy


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« Reply #55 on: October 05, 2011, 07:00:07 PM »

Four of us plan to take off Sunday around 10ish.  Likely doing an alternate route for day one to avoid the mud between marshall lake and mormon mtn.  We will also likely be camping at lower elevations for the the first two nights - should be a little warmer in the desert. We will not be racing, but certainly there will be some friendly fire, and picture taking...  Hopefully the flat possibly muddy areas between williams and wing mtn will be drained enough by the time we get to them next Wednesday...
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #56 on: October 05, 2011, 08:31:00 PM
redrockgirl


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« Reply #56 on: October 05, 2011, 08:31:00 PM »

Two of us plan to start as scheduled....

Red Rock and Endo

We'll see ya at the 7am linkup :-)
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #57 on: October 05, 2011, 08:33:54 PM
redrockgirl


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« Reply #57 on: October 05, 2011, 08:33:54 PM »

BUT...that said...if there was a consensus to start on time and all could start together, Sedona might be a solid place to start....at the 7am on Fri.   Same loop, same mileage as original.  A bit warmer, drier and then better weather by the time we hit the higher elevations (not counting Mingus of course :-)   Thoughts?  Buyers? :-)
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #58 on: October 05, 2011, 08:51:33 PM
ScottM
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« Reply #58 on: October 05, 2011, 08:51:33 PM »

That's an interesting idea -- starting with stage 2, then having the finish be at the Sedona overlook.

Unless I wake up tomorrow feeling better and like I really can't miss out, I'm out for this year's Coco.  Sad  Playing it conservative so my back can heal, I guess.  I'm Coco-depressed right now.

Last call for SPOT rentals!  I'm getting them to Chad tomorrow, so after tomorrow morning it will be too late.  I added a few folks to the tracker just now.
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  Topic Name: Coconino 250 Race Thread 2011 Reply #59 on: October 05, 2011, 08:54:33 PM
aarong


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« Reply #59 on: October 05, 2011, 08:54:33 PM »

as of right now, i'm planning on starting in flag on friday (maybe around 10-11 -- but will be up at breakie at 7), but with that said, i'm totally open to changing it to a sedona start if people are interested. making the most out of the warmth is certainly appealing. -- jen
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