First Ever Arizona Trail Race

[ActionJackson]

I land in Phoenix on Thursday (4/22) at 1:35pm. I have a one way rental car rented to Tucson. I'll grab my gear, setup my bike, drop stuff off at a friends and then head down to Tuscon. Will probably stop and grab water/food at a local grocery store.  

Just post up if this timing is close to yours and I'd be happy to shuttle someone else down to Tucson.

[wookieone]

Any word on the course and cues?

[krefs]

Looks like I'm in it for the long haul.  Time to figure out the details...

 

[ScottM]

Awesome Kurt.  Welcome.

I hope to have a final GPX for AZTR and cues by the end of this week.

[DaveH]

What is the snow contingency plan?  Scott, you're a practical guy and somehow I don't think the old mantra "the course is the course is the course" will hold up in this case.  Unless it all melts out in time.

According to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/ it's looking to be cool and moist, generally speaking, for the next month.

[ScottM]

Yeah, I'm perfectly OK with having a snow clause for the north rim.  Seems like it'll need to be invoked maybe half of the years, and will just need to be noted in the results.

I'm not so willing to change the route elsewhere, though, so I hope the long term forecast is off. 

[DaveH]

Cool.  So when does it get invoked?  Before the start or when the first rider gets there and assesses conditions?  It's really just a curiosity on my part but I bet everyone really wants to know.  These sorts of thoughts were rattling around my head before one snowy Grand Loop...

Sure wish I was in a position to ride this one!  Been dreaming about it forever, it's a beauty.  Trackleaders will be fun

[ScottM]

I'd say it is in effect right now, and that will only change if things really start melting.  I will call the north rim and ask for a conditions update near race start day.

If anyone wants to follow the trail when they get there, more power to them!  Either route will be acceptable, sort of like the divide alternates in New Mexico.

[krefs]

Still lots of snow up there, and it's not melting very fast.  Here is the modeled snow depth for April 7 for anyone who's curious...it's hardly any different than April 1.  



Dave, I agree that the snow contingency plans (if there are any) need to be made clear ahead of time.  There had been so much talk about alternate routes in the GL a couple years ago that I thought in the heat (or freezing cold) of the moment that my detour was acceptable, but apparently that wasn't the case.  Plus Dave Kirk just plain showed me up by hiking all the deep snow on the Pool Creek section.  

[ScottM]

Yeah, it'll be clear before we start.  It's very unlikely the north rim will melt out in time, so I would say plan on taking the highway from the North Kaibab trailhead all the way to Jacob Lake.  It may be possible to jump back on the trail sooner, but there is also the closure area for the warm fire, which I think is still in effect (?), and we'd have to detour for anyway.

I guess my reasoning for allowing the detour is that the potential snow on the north rim is much longer (3-4 times) than the Tab singletrack, and also that you will have just hiked 20+ miles to get there, across the canyon.  At that point I think you should be able to ride the bike you carried across the canyon, ya know?  Not hike another 20+ miles...  but if anyone wants to make a case for 'the trail is the trail is the trail', do so now!

The snowpack on the Mogollon Rim is a bit surprising to me in that image.  I know that in '05 most of the rim dirt roads were not open yet.  There was no snow, but mud in that area can be absolutely horrific (anyone ever race the White Mountains in the rain?!).  We may have some slow conditions there, but I think we'll be able to get through.

[krefs]

Just for comparison, attached is the modeled snow depth from today in 2005.

[ScottM]

Umm.  Wow.   Do you know what data goes into the model?  Beyond the obvious of elevation and slope, I'd assume nearby snotel sites and overall precipitation history go into it, but I haven't looked into it.

[ScottM]

And for comparison, here's a shot from 2005:



The plowing undoubtedly makes it look deeper than it is, but that is still a lot of snow.

Pic was taken 5/13/05.

[DaveH]

Dang.  That comparison is a bit of a shocker.

IME with a similar modeling tool on the Tab, snowpack on the ground was more significant than what was suggested by the model.  

The plot thickens ever more.  Got skis?

[krefs]

The model takes into account all available SNOTEL and other met station data for both snow depth and other meteorological parameters, as well as airborne gamma ray measurements of snowpack water content (flights are done quite regularly).  I've found these model data to be very representative of conditions on the ground, but conditions locally can vary considerably. 

Basically, if the model suggests there's 2 feet of snow on the ground, there's going to be a lot on north-facing slopes and probably some on south-facing slopes.  If it predicts there's none, patches on north-facing slopes might be around.  And if it predicts there is 70" on the Kaibab, pack your skis or snowshoes, because you probably won't find any bare ground anywhere.

[wookieone]

Yeah, I found the AZ Snotel site the other day, it looks scary, I mean this baby is gonna be a total ass kick without feet of snow and mud. Planning the whole hike a bike is hard enough, but planning an itineray is proving to be impossible with that much possible snow. Snow shoes might be a grand idea!? Any one have a more specific area where we are mostly likely to hit snow, other than the North Rim? When I was checking the Snotel it looked like a bunch near Morman MT/Lake. I am curious as well about the possible snow/mud clause? At what point do we abondon ship? Damn Winter! Looks like a pretty good crew forming up for this, can't believe it's two weeks away!!! Oh yeah any word on the idea to stay in Sierra Vista Thursday night? I hope to be in Tucson by mid Day thursday, happy to help with shuttling, think I will have some room. Thanks Jefe

[krefs]

Please don't say it's just two weeks away...my bike doesn't even have a fork right now!

[AZTtripper]

Please don't say it's just two weeks away...my bike doesn't even have a fork right now!

As far as I know no one has unicycled the AZT yet.

[dkirk]

Dang, it makes that Pool Creek look like a walk in the park. I'm with DH on this one, it'll be fun to couch potato this one this year! Hopefully they'll have your road to the north rim plowed out!
Later,
Dk

[ScottM]

I hear ya, Jefe.  I just put in an email to my friend in Payson, seeing what he thinks about conditions near there and up on the Mogollon Rim (and also double checking the route, some of which was his creation / suggestion).  The Rim is where the trouble may begin, and is a good indication of how the next ~100 miles to Flagstaff may go.

It is a bit worrisome that there is still multiple feet of snow up there right now, and we have less than 3 weeks for it to melt.

The AZT goes right along the shoulder of Mormon Mtn at roughly the same elevation as the snotel site, currently at 33 inches.

Another area of concern is the newly connected (as of last summer) piece of AZT along the west / northwest side of the peaks outside of Flagstaff.  It hovers around 9000' for several miles before dropping off through north facing slopes in aspen forests.  Brilliant piece of trail that might be passable in the big open meadows, but even in 2005, May, we found large snow drifts on the much lower Hart Prairie road:



Photo 5/8/05

So, stay tuned, and hope for lots of warm sunshine.