Tour Divide 2023 - Race Prep Discussion

[samh]

...they have been basically matching Mike Hall's pace mile-for-mile, just from a 60-70 mile mud-induced deficit.

I have been astounded by the lead group in this regard for days and days on end.  I was doubtful that gap could be closed but it now seems possible.

And immense kudos to Nation for his strategy.  And close behind, Steven, and Burkard are performing so solidly as well 

[jjmundt]

The gap to Mike's record is still about 60 miles this morning as Ulrich departs Cuba, and it's a numbers game...it's always a numbers game.

So here it is:

Mike's dot will reach Pie Town at 6pm tonight, where it will stop until about midnight.  Then it starts and doesn't stop until Antelope Wells.  That's fixed and won't change.

Ulrich is roughly six hours behind.  The way I see it, he has to ride from Cuba to the border - without stopping - and maintain a better pace than Mike through the Gila, the CDT section, and the push to the border.  That's basically 70 hours straight riding at the end of this race.

[jjmundt]

I hope Justinas is alright and just resting.  He might be conceding 1st to Ulrich to spare his body...or his SPOT needs fresh batteries.

[bon]

Thank you Joel!

I see Andrew Kulmatiski is out there for another NoBo run. That's really cool!

[jjmundt]

Ulrich's gap to the record remains about 65 miles...and as he turns south from Pueblo Pintado towards Milan/Grants, he'll face mild headwinds (5-10mph).

[samh]

To add to jjmundt's fine analysis here's my hot take.  Mike Hall pulled into Pie Town at 12 days 10 hours, then slept until 12 days 17 hours.  We're at 12 days 4.5 hours right now and Ulrich is still 123 miles from Pie Town.  If he manages 10+ mph he won't get to Pie Town for another 11 hours which would mean he'd only be allowed an hour's rest and then have to proceed to match Mike's pace (keeping in mind Mike had a six hour rest) for the remaining 295 miles.

[Shawn]

That 12 hours stuck in the basin is going to be almost impossible to overcome. I doubt it was very restful.

[bon]

Headwinds, tailwind, rain, mud, mechanicals....so many possible mitigating factors. Anything is possible but it'll be a very high leap.

[Shawn]

There was an IG post by Ulrich showing he had to put a crank back on. Josh Ibbet made a good observation that his rear tire is pretty much bald now.

[jjmundt]

To add to jjmundt's fine analysis here's my hot take.  Mike Hall pulled into Pie Town at 12 days 10 hours, then slept until 12 days 17 hours.  We're at 12 days 4.5 hours right now and Ulrich is still 123 miles from Pie Town.  If he manages 10+ mph he won't get to Pie Town for another 11 hours which would mean he'd only be allowed an hour's rest and then have to proceed to match Mike's pace (keeping in mind Mike had a six hour rest) for the remaining 295 miles.

Great point!  The gap is not impossible to overcome, but it will take a herculean effort.

[jjmundt]

Winds in Milan are modest, but still from the WSW.  75 miles is now the gap as Mike's dot begins to rest.

[jjmundt]

...and another interesting development...

Some pop-up showers are running just north of Pie Town on the route.  I don't think there's enough rain to cause issues, but...

[jjmundt]

I still show Mike's dot this morning with about a 40-mile lead on Ulrich, who rolled into Pie Town right as the clock struck 12 this morning.  He took a 4-hour nap before heading out again.  Now it's a drag race to the border.  Ulrich has pace, there's no doubt about that, but can he pick up 40+ miles with about 260 to go?

...and a huge way-to-go to Justinas Leveika, who had a huge day yesterday and has just rolled out of Pie Town.  It's still possible for him to spoil Ulrich's day by snatching the win himself.

This has been awesome to watch.  The only thing better would be riding out there and kicking up my own dust.

[bon]

Thanks for the great update, Joel! Indeed - there's nothing like being out there yourself.

[Shawn]

What makes Justinas' run even more impressive is that his electronic derailleur has stopped working. He is having to manually operate it to change gears.

I'm still not convinced on these e-shifters. I've seen a lot of issues with them this year. OTOH, I snapped a cable last year, but was lucky it happened right as I was entering Butte.

[jjmundt]

Agreed.  I know Mike Hall used the e-shift system in 2016, but yeah, I steadfastly run from it.  I feel that I'm way less likely to snap a cable than I am to have battery issues.  In fact, I don't think I've ever broken a shifter cable.

[bon]

Agreed. For me - the mechanically challenged - less is more.

[jjmundt]

I see Andrew Kulmatiski is out there for another NoBo run. That's really cool!

...and Andrew is out of the gate flying.  260+ miles as of this morning.  His bike is set to "boogie"!!

[Shawn]

I feel that I'm way less likely to snap a cable than I am to have battery issues.  In fact, I don't think I've ever broken a shifter cable.

I've only broken the one, and I'm convinced that happened because I dropped the bike onto the drive side on Lava Mountain. DOH!

[Shawn]

...and Andrew is out of the gate flying.  260+ miles as of this morning.  His bike is set to "boogie"!!

I looked him up on Strava. Dude puts down miles!! A couple of weeks ago he did 300+ mile ride!