Tour Divide 2024 - Race Discussion

[kiwijohnmac]

I wonder if this is going to be the year that Mike Hall's record is going to be broken. Justinas is on a hell of pace right now!

[jjmundt]

I wonder if this is going to be the year that Mike Hall's record is going to be broken. Justinas is on a hell of pace right now!

He is definitely flying, which is a good thing, because he's going to need a lead when he reaches NM.  The new CDT section in the north and revisions south of Silver City are going to add, at the very least, several hours to the ride.  He also needs to pay close attention to his body and rest when it's required...which is true of all riders.  You cannot win the Tour in Montana, but you can certainly lose it there.

[jjmundt]

Thanks for that link jj.

A few years ago there was talk of compiling a list of camera links along the route.

Here's a few more that have been collected - - add to the list if you have any more.
...

Thanks for the list.  The Togwotee Mtn Lodge cam is especially good for rider-spotting...it's highly recommended.

[kiwijohnmac]

Looking at the race flow it appears that Justinas is not really sleeping much at all whereas Ulrich and Laurens are getting a good 4 to 6 hours sleep. I wonder when it is going to catch up with Justinas. For all his lack of sleep he only has a small lead of about 20 miles, which could evaporate really quickly. Really interesting to watch the different approaches.

[jjmundt]

Looking at the race flow it appears that Justinas is not really sleeping much at all whereas Ulrich and Laurens are getting a good 4 to 6 hours sleep. I wonder when it is going to catch up with Justinas. For all his lack of sleep he only has a small lead of about 20 miles, which could evaporate really quickly. Really interesting to watch the different approaches.

Great observations!

Ruh roh...it's about to get interesting on the '24 TD.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of the TD path through tomorrow (Monday) afternoon.  Heavy, wet snow...5" or more possible at lower elevations, up to a foot in the 6-8000' range.

The watch area covers the route from Eureka to just north of Whitefish, then Swan Lake, Holland Lake, Richmond Peak, Ovando and potentially Huckleberry Pass.   Other places include Lava Mountain (west of Helena), the area around Butte, and Fleecer Ridge.

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/mt/ovando

It might be time for some of those riders to push a bit now and get as far south as possible, but nearly every rider is potentially affected.

[WatermelonSugar]

Great observations!

Ruh roh...it's about to get interesting on the '24 TD.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of the TD path through tomorrow (Monday) afternoon.  Heavy, wet snow...5" or more possible at lower elevations, up to a foot in the 6-8000' range.

The watch area covers the route from Eureka to just north of Whitefish, then Swan Lake, Holland Lake, Richmond Peak, Ovando and potentially Huckleberry Pass.   Other places include Lava Mountain (west of Helena), the area around Butte, and Fleecer Ridge.

https://www.wunderground.com/severe/us/mt/ovando

It might be time for some of those riders to push a bit now and get as far south as possible, but nearly every rider is potentially affected.

I hope nobody's skimped on the warm clothing and waterproofs and there aren't a load of search and resucue callouts again!

[jjmundt]

...and now it's a Winter Storm Warning for much of that area.  A prayer is going up for all the riders.  Be safe...and be smart!!

[jjmundt]

Well, there's all kinds of rain and snow around the riders this morning, but Justinas continues to push at a furious pace.  As I type, he's cleared Helena and one of the "big 3" climbs on the route (Park City/Lava Mtn) and is arriving in Basin.  He is ~15 miles in front of Mike Hall's spirit and about 30 miles ahead of Ulrich, who appears to have stopped and rested a few hours in Helena.  Both riders are currently outpacing Mike's 2016 average of ~11mph.

The Winter Storm Warning continues until 6am tomorrow (Tuesday), so things will not improve until tomorrow afternoon, and it's possible tonight's conditions will be worse than last night.  The good news is that borderline freezing temps usually means all hard-surface roads are only wet with no accumulations - and various webcams in the region seem to be bearing that out - but loose-surface roads and trails, especially as the elevation climbs, could be a much different story.  We'll see.

Back to stalking...

[jjmundt]

One other note to add...

Looking a bit further ahead, there has been some rain and snow on the Bannack Rd south of Polaris, though it doesn't appear to have been especially heavy.  And what's more, there's essentially a 100% of rain/snow today, though not a lot of accumulation.  Both Justinas and Ulrich will likely reach the area sometime today (unless they stop at MHCL to rest), so we'll see how they fare.

[mtbcast]

Sorry I haven't posted the calls in here. There are a few out there from Rick Ashton and Marty Johnson. They  called in this morning to say they plan to by-pass The Wall.

http://mtbcast.com/site2/category/td24/

[jjmundt]

Sorry I haven't posted the calls in here. There are a few out there from Rick Ashton and Marty Johnson. They  called in this morning to say they plan to by-pass The Wall.

http://mtbcast.com/site2/category/td24/

Thanks so much for posting these, Joe.  They're a highlight of the TD for sure...and my yearly moment of silence and a tip of the cap for my absolute favorite caller, Hal Russell.

[jjmundt]

Ulrich Bartholmoes has been flying in less than ideal conditions today, moving to just 15 miles off Justinas' lead as he drops off Fleecer Ridge and lands at Wise River.  Laurens Ten Dam is just a further 15 miles back.  Justinas is running neck-and-neck with Mike Hall's spirit.  I predict that Mike's dot will stop at Montana High Country Lodge and remain there for about six hours...one of the two six-hour stops he's made every years since '16.  It's a long way to Silver City, but could we see a repeat of the 2015 Kato-Petervary-Beltchenko throwdown?...time will tell.

I don't know if Meaghan Hackinen has ever been confused with former F1 driver Mika Hakkinen, but it's appropriate...the woman has pace and is flying!!!

[Iowagriz]

All three leaders stayed at Elkhorn Hot Springs last night. I might be wrong, but I believe that Montana High Country Lodge was sold several years ago and does not greet riders like they did years ago.  Might even be private.

I was thinking that they'd hit mud a Bannack, but the first few gps pings from Justinas shows approx normal speed.  The last of the rain should move through there today.

If you haven't seen the photo from Eddie Clark, he posted one yesterday of Justinas on Fleecer ridge.  Meadow completely covered with snow, but it looked like the road wasn't really holding snow.

[WatermelonSugar]

All three leaders stayed at Elkhorn Hot Springs last night. I might be wrong, but I believe that Montana High Country Lodge was sold several years ago and does not greet riders like they did years ago.  Might even be private.

I was thinking that they'd hit mud a Bannack, but the first few gps pings from Justinas shows approx normal speed.  The last of the rain should move through there today.

If you haven't seen the photo from Eddie Clark, he posted one yesterday of Justinas on Fleecer ridge.  Meadow completely covered with snow, but it looked like the road wasn't really holding snow.

Laurens is still there. He's either got his tracker off or is having a long rest. The Gap between the other two is only about 10 miles now!

[Iowagriz]

Windy.com says the leaders should get a nice West wind push to Yellowstone today.  They might increase that lead over the record.  I haven't looked into Wyoming, but in Montana, the weather is looking up from today forward.  Warming and no rain (or less rain).  If that is also true for the Basin, they should really fly along.

[mtbcast]

#TD24 - Overnight: Johnny Price called in from Lincoln And this morning Randy Neill called in from Whitefish!
http://mtbcast.com/site2/category/td24/

[mtbcast]

#TD24 - Johnny Price called in from near Priest Pass!

http://mtbcast.com/site2/category/td24/

[jjmundt]

What a difference a day makes!!

Yesterday morning the leaders were fighting snow, rain, and the ability to keep up with Mike Hall.  Well, that was yesterday morning...

THIS morning sees Justinas nearly 100 miles up on the course record - and appearing to take a siesta at Flagg Ranch - and Ulrich 50 miles up.  Laurens Ten Dam has reeled in Mike's dot and with his speed, will likely pass it today.  There's still a LOT of race to go, but considering the potential weather conditions from a couple of days ago, the pace has been astounding.  Meaghan Hackinen has kept up her blistering pace with Ana Jager just a half day back.

There are still three fires in New Mexico that are in proximity to the TD route, so there is still reason for concern.  But for the leaders (both men's and women's), it's potentially a record-breaker.

[jjmundt]

FYI, New Mexico fire conditions can be seen here:

https://nmfwri.org/gis-projects/the-new-mexico-fire-viewer/

[AZTtripper]

https://scontent.fphx1-2.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/448781584_3623871847862288_6169592335919344420_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=5f2048&_nc_ohc=zMlj8AC54qkQ7kNvgF3auj6&_nc_ht=scontent.fphx1-2.fna&oh=00_AYDx3y_J03mq_XOZUEhybJvxN_dA4hlTBgwYIoDfdEtOjA&oe=6678FF29

Finally managed a screen shot of Lael's dot at just 8 minutes old. Meaghan Hackinen looks to have a 46 mile lead.

LTD looks to be headed off course, and he's back apparently needed a spare tube.