Tour Divide Scratches: What mileage?

[MattL]

I note the list of historical scratches at http://tourdivide.org/scratch but wonder where folks usually give up.  In preparing for this race, it seems clear to me that you should plan to want to abandon, and have a plan to deal with those thoughts.  You might get lucky and just chug all the way to the end, never entertaining the idea of abandonment, but the numbers imply otherwise.

I've been reading The Lore of Running by Tim Noakes.  "As repeatedly emphasized, usually after 80% to 85% of the activity has been completed, your conscious brain will ask you whether you should continue.  This is the so-called stopping wish. ...if you have practiced mental imagery and visualized how you will respond to the stopping wish, you will be less likely to succumb...".  By straight mileage, 80% is somewhere between Abiquiu and Cuba, but I believe most scratches are earlier than that (correct?).

[sluttyduck]

I crunched the numbers for 2008-2010 based on the call ins/map.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ag4epxJKyBqcdHBMWmo5azlaTWZPTDdLZGpzaTZ2M2c&hl=en_US#gid=0

[Slowerthensnot]

Mine,

2006 started in port roosville, bike stolen near big fork, mt 160ish miles in

2007 started in Roosville made it to Jackson lake

2008 started in baniff made it to seely lake, Sick as a dog

2009 started in Antelope wells, made it to south of steamboat springs, lots on my mind mental breakdown

2011, lost bicycle, DNS antelope wells

[sluttyduck]

Planning on abandoning just sounds depressing to me.
I remember an evening when I was trying to get to town before a restaurant closed.
I told myself to stop dreaming of the juicy burger and fries because I'd be depressed if I didn't get there in time.
So I just thought about eating my peanut butter and tortilla and that was more depressing than not having a burger.
Screw that.

[Foster]

Looks to me like montana is where most people drop out.  More towns in Montana and Colorado make it easier to drop out in those states.  Also Montana is that point in mileage where people probably find out what the race is all about and whether or not they were prepared for it.  Wyoming is easier riding I would think, long stretches of strait roads so things are a little easier, wonder why there are high numbers there.  And by the time you are in New mexico, you might as well suck it up and finish.  

Just my interpretation of the numbers that you crunched.

[sluttyduck]

I removed the 2011 column since it was a radically different course.
This is just the GD stats, I didn't do ITT.

[MattL]

Planning on abandoning just sounds depressing to me.

Just to be clear, I said you should plan on wanting to abandon.  What I mean by this is, if I'm planning to race this race, and I've done solo endurance events before, and I've read Jill Homer's book, and I've listened to the call-ins for years, and I know the attrition rate is >50%, and I've watched Ride the Divide, I can't look at all of that and honestly believe I'll never want to quit the whole 2700 miles.  I'm not saying plan to quit, but expect to get weak and want to quit, and have a plan for that.  A plan to talk back, get your head straight, and keep moving.

For me, knowing where people tend quit may help me build intermediate goals or strategies that I can use to keep my head straight at key times.

Anyway, that's me and my approach.  This sort of thing is all about self-knowledge for me.  Everybody has a breaking point.  If I work past it and finish despite temporary discomfort, that's excellent.  If I find my breaking point because I give up, that's going to be a heck of an opportunity to rebuild myself stronger.

[Foster]

to MattL

Yeah, this is definitely smart strategy, mental preparation for any ultra endurance event is key I think.  Sometimes when it gets really tough mentally and I want to quit, what helps me is to stop riding and find a nice spot to chill out and calm the nerves and enjoy the scenery for 30 mins or so.  This gets me back on track and I get back on the bike ready to go and in a better mood then when I first got off.  Also never decide to quit at night when you go to sleep, wake up the next morning and chances are you'll keep going and make a clearer decision.  I am guessing that a good chuck of those that scratch, do so because of sever mental drain.  So having a way to sort it out when it comes will help.  Music is also good to change negative thoughts about quitting.  

[SteveW]

One crazy idea I think. If you have a plan, a bail-out option, to quit, you probably will. It's the last thing I would advise even considering. Especially as it sounds like you’re not sure you’ll finish. I can't imagine anyone has really struggled getting themselves back home (That would be a better question to ask). Instead, why not spend your planning time learning how to think on your feet and deal with those random situations that occur. That’s what tackling the Divide really needs, flexibility. You cannot foresee and plan for every eventuality, like an exit from every mile of the trail, but you can be prepared to deal with just about anything and solve problems.

[mikepro]

Montana - there's oft-repeated adage about TD racing: "make it through Montana, make it to AW".  Something about the day 3 "hurdle" and the day 7 "hurdle" where the body/mind is adjusting to a new and repetitious behavior/habit/experience.  ~30% of racers don't get over the hurdle.

Wyoming - it's all about getting through the Great Basin and beyond Rawlins.  The historical numbers crunched by the above indicates that Wyoming is more than random.  The Great Basin / Rawlins "thing" is mental and psychological.  People read so much history about what the Great Basin dished out to pioneers that it takes on this foreboding essence.  One cannot deny that the Great Basin has an effect beyond the comprehension of mere mortals.  Mwah-hah-hah-hah  (_insert sinister laugh here_) !!

[THE LONG RANGER]

It also may be interesting to find out why the scratch was done. Was it a mechanical? An injury? Exhaustion? Mental? (home sickness)? There's a whole lot of things that are difficult to control, on such a huge route - aggro wildlife, bad weather, missed resupply, it can all add up.  I'm pretty amazed at those that have completed it 3x without scratching once.

Montana is, to put it bluntly, Huge. Believe I passed the 1st place NoBo'r, while going South, in Montana, right before Red Rocks Pass. Pretty impressive on him, I have to say!

[phil_rad]

My race in 2010 ended in Helena, MT. 626 miles in; day six. Actually I bailed on the morning of day 7 but I made up my mind the night before. My scratch started though on day two when Patrick and I decided we needed to get to Eureka from Elkford, 155 miles. We made it but at a high price for me; I never recovered and contemplated scratching from day three until day six when the rain hit. (Patrick on the other hand stuck it out and made it to AW.) That did me in. 9 hours of nonstop rain. I really don't mind rain too much; I live in Germany and if you want to ride all the time you'd better get used to some rain. It was just "the straw that broke the camels back" for me.

It was good that I did quit because during those 6 days I had pinched a nerve in my right hand and couldn't move 2 fingers; the doc said that if I had continued with the race the damage would have been irreversible.

Still, the scratch haunts me to this day and next year, I'll give it another shot.


 

[Marshal]

Interesting topic, comes up over and over in endurance circles.

Some semi-random thoughts on the subject

Different approaches for different folks—
ie: if making bail out plans increase your confidence and reduces your stress that can only be good.  On the other hand if making a good bail plan gives one an ‘easy’ out during high stress—well that can only be a bad thing

WHY DO RACERS DROP??

Bike issues
Of course these can be minimized with good prep and can always be over come –but sometimes it’s just not worth the effort after to much lost time.  

Sickness:
Just like bike prep you can be prepared to min the chances of getting sick.  You have full control over what/where you eat/drink.  And you can carry some ‘just in case’ meds.  And if you do get sick—you can wait it out, but for many it’s just not worth it after to much time has been lost.

Injury:
Again, just like bike and sickness one can ‘prepare’ to minimize drop inducing injurys.  The key to minimizing injury lies in getting your bike position & body dialed for endurance.  Knowing your body’s weak points helps as you can pre-plan on how to deal with your particular issues.

BUT, if one eliminated drops due to bike, sickness and injury what’s left?

Conditioning:
Body mass: Some riders simply have not put in the time to train their bodies to handle the effort.  If you are carrying to many extra pounds you probably fall into this category.

Tendons: have you trained long and hard at full race weight?  If not then see Injury

Mind: Are you really prepared to deal with the mental aspects of sitting on a bike for 12-20 hours, day after day? How can you be sure?  Actually doing it for several days under full race conditions is really the only way to know, and even then things change

Other:
Revelation: This one seems to be not all that un-common amongst the fully prepped fit & fast racers.  Some racers who ‘could’ finish simply decide not to.  IE: somewhere along the way they realize TDR style racing is not worth it from a personal point of view.  Only the truly mentally tough & truly balanced person will quit for this reason.

Finish Time:
imo some quit because they realize along the way they are not going to achieve the finish time they had publicly or secretly planned for.  Again this applies to the racer who ‘could finish’ but choose's not to.  Is this a sigh of mental weakness or mental toughness—could be either imo

Time:
Some racers just run out of time.  IE: they had stuff happen that means they can not finish and maintain their mandatory schedule, real life demands

Not tough enough--Mental weakness:
IMO, with the possible exception of Finish Time, no one  ever has, or ever will, quit due to not being mentally “tough enough”.  Just talk to anyone who has dropped and ask them had the underlying causes (see above) been eliminated would they have still quit?  Maybe, but I don’t think so.  

So, In my mind being ‘tough enough’ to finish simply means being truly prepared and also not having the truly uncontrollable “bike/injury/sickness” stuff happen to you.

[JayP]

to me this is absolutly no way to get prepared to finish the TD! although interesting conversation...

"So, In my mind being ‘tough enough’ to finish simply means being truly prepared and also not having the truly uncontrollable “bike/injury/sickness” stuff happen to you."
one must be "tough enough" to get through the uncontrolable stuff...regardless of how prepared...

sorry, but it is mostly mental to finish this event...

"This sort of thing is all about self-knowledge for me"
you said it, now go learn it. on your own training, experimanting, and racing...we are all individuals and must learn what works for us...

and to truly finish, you must love what your doing and being where your at, even in the most difficult moments. i have always said expedition racing is way easier then reguler life and I truly love it!

[DenisVTT]

Everybody is different but for me having bailout plans makes no sense.

As JayP said, the race is mostly mental. If you want to finish, you must know in advance that you will finish!

I "knew" I would finish because in 7 years of semi-serious mountain biking, I'm still not to finish a ride. Short ride or long ride, easy or tough, if I start it, I'm in it for good and I'll get to the other end no matter what. I've even finished a couple of rides after breaking my frame.

That's not to say sh*t won't happen. It might. I'm just not planning on it. All I'm planning to do is to finish, regardless of how long it may take.

- Denis (2011 Nobo finisher)

[Jeff Tomassetti]

I agree with Denis. I have made a life long habit of finishing what I start. So, TD was no different. It needs to be preordained in your brain. Just like life, there is no quitting option, so keep moving forward.

And, you need to eliminate reasons to quit, especially the 'not enough time' reason. Most issues can be solved in a day.  For example, A. Harding went back to Steamboat, repaired his broken frame and kept on going.

Finally, it is the unexpected craziness that makes unsupported long races so much fun. Knowing you can bail sucks the fun out.

Jeff

[caddy]

Not finishing the TD is mainly in the head, virtually all mechanicals can be fixed with time and effort and physical issues (short of breaking something) can be addressed with suitable resting and slowing up. Personally I got to about 2 weeks before I lost my Mojo and really started to not enjoy the ride.
I realised by that stage I wasnt going to make my target of 20 days and to put it simply I didnt like riding my bike enough to ride 16hrs a day every day !

But my experience from doing other endurance racing (12Hr events) told me  that  at some stage in the race you are going to wish you were somewhere else so I didnt give up or start thinking of reasons for stopping, I just plodded along and focused on getting a good 8hrs of sleep. I finally made it in 24days and was relieved I wouldnt have to do it again !

Recognising that there is a very good chance that in any endurance event you will go through periods when you really are not having fun and that this is all part of the experience and not a trigger to start thinking about giving up.
Not having a plan B helps, I had no idea how I was going to get to Banff if I didnt cycle there !
It also helps if you can wind in your ego and only have the expectation of completing the race rather than some specific time or position.

Craig